Market Commentary:12/9/2014

Major Indian Index Nifty and Sensex opened negative and after two failed attempts to stay positive Nifty Slipped -1.16% and Sensex slipped -1.15%. Both the Indices gave conformation of 20DMA negative breakout which happened yesterday. Indian Market ended up its 8 week low.

Today all the major Indices were negative; India VIX was up by 2.36%. The major losers in stock are SSTL, ONGC, Tata Power, Tata Steel and the top gainers are M&M, Dr. Reddy, Sun Pharma and HCL Tech  

Most of all Asian Markets are in negative in which Chinese market fell over 5% creating a major fall since 2009. Meanwhile Brent Crude oil hit its 5 year low at USD 66/Barrel.   

Technical Analyst predicts 100DMA can be the next support for Nifty and Sensex. Indian stock market is likely to consolidate further this week. Traders say weak global cues and rise in current account deficit (CAD) is the major reason for today’s fall.

Reliance Capital: A View

After, Modi coming up with new banks license in India all the trader in the stock market are having a keen interest on the stock which is getting the banking license. Among which we have Reliance who is a big player and the chance of getting the permit is very high.

Technical Perspective

The stock is showing the divergence and we can see a falling wedge pattern . On 9^th September 2014 the stock had given the positive breakout and the on 10^th September 2014 i.e today the stock had shown a Doji. And we can see the can open with a positive note tomorrow. If not; the stock can end up falling to 500 which is the immediate support. And 577 and 670 are the good resistance. The stock has a potential to make a new high.

Additional Observation

The stock is showing negative correlation from last 6 months and we have to see that the patter will continue or the old pattern will repeat. 

Technical Analysis on Request: Aurobindo Pharma

No one are bearish on  Aurobindo Pharma. But, technically I am able to see a rising wedge in this stock along with it. I am also able to see a bearish divergence in this stock

 The stock will be bearish after an bearish breakout in the trend

Technical Analysis on Request: Reliance, Why trader are bullish on Reliance?

From last few days Reliance is a buzz in the mouth of every investor. In my last article I had only given my views on Reliance. Today, I will let everyone know why traders are bullish on Reliance?.
Click here to read my last article 

 As per the current scenario the stock has given a bearish breakout and the stock has started correcting as you can see in the chart below

 "Inside Funda"

From last April 1st 2014 both Relaince and 13 Urea companies have failed to settle the price of natural gas supply rate and the issue had knocked the door of our oil minister Veerappa Moily. And the issue of keeping gas price below half of the global price is the main funda behind. So, Moily Had given a press relies saying

"When the proposal came to me, I rightly ordered that after the model code of conduct is lifted, (the) price may be announced for the quarter July-September and also for the quarter April-June, as per the approved guidelines by the cabinet,"- by Mr Moily 

What is the problem?

RIL and urea companies failed to settle the key terms of gas supply from 1 April on expiry of the five-year contracts that priced gas from the eastern offshore KG-D6 fields at $4.205 per million British thermal unit (mBtu). While RIL agreed to continue supplies in the interim period, the dispute pertained to the rate at which consumers should provide payment guarantees—the expired price or $8.34, which would have been applicable from 1 April had the Election Commission not postponed implementation of the Rangarajan Committee formula till completion of the general election.

"Moily's Game Play"

Reliance and Mr.Moily is are under a pressure of Election and Moily had informed that he will implement the price with a special formula

But, India's main opposition "Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), widely expected to win the most seats in the election and oust Moily's Congress party-led government, has said it would review the gas pricing formula if elected. " (as per a National Newspaper)

Conclusion: More than Technicals, I trust to keep a keen eye on News and information because that will drive this stock.

Source: livemint.com, Economic Times, NDTV 

Idea Cellular: continuation of downtrend (Technical Analysis on request)

For a few days from now the Idea  Cellular was making a bearish divergence on RSI and today it has given a downside breakout. which will lead the stock price to 125 or 101 within next few months. Here in the picture below we can see that the stock has given a downside breakout for the divergence

The possible supports for Idea

When we see at larger picture of Idea cellular we  can see that the stock has given a breakout(Downside/ Bearish) and failed to regain the bullish trend. Thus leading the stock into downtrend. Most of all major moving average namely 50DMA, 100DMA, 200DMA have given a negative crossover which is now making this stock a unfavorable piece of stock.  

Trading Sintex Ind's Ascending Triangle

As per the observation the stock had performed well in market. From last September 2013, now the stock is giving clear indication of a continuation and the stock price is expected to move up to 43/52 which are the next potential resistance.

The RSI is above 70 and making a bearish divergence thus forming the stock as a risky trade and can be advised to traders with quick entry and exit strategy. 

How to play with FMCG this year?

Since the news of Stake rise by Anglo-Dutch company Unileaver  PLC is ready to pump some +19K crores which is roughly around 67%. The FMCG market had a hard time; slowdown, high cost, profit margin, rupee depreciation, had affected almost all FMCG stocks. We have seen a consolidation of HUL stock from last June-July even FMCG stock have seen consolidation from September 2013.

FMCG CNX Analysis

 Currently CNX FMCG is just below 200DMA and trend-line is standing as a support. There is a possibility we may see a reversal. Stake rise is not only a problem with HUL, many foreign companies are rising stake in major FMCG companies like Pepsico, GSK and few  in other subsidiaries. It was basically a result of 

SEBI’s and RBI’s change of rules in minimum public shareholdings.

FMCG CNX had formed a Symmetrical triangle now; It had not given any directional breakout.

Analysis on HUL

The Stake rise news had created a fluctuation thus forming a Descending Triangle pattern, which had also given a negative breakout.  Along with it we are also seeing a divergence now, and forming a reversal pattern.

The stock is not an attractive stocks for analyst and many find ITC to be a good bet, as the P/E & Earning for FY15(Expected) to be good comparatively good. Both RSI as well as MACD has shown some divergence.

I am not a pharmabull. But, I want to play it technically. Buy if HUL give a positive breakout. I see this stock to be bullish and the stock is expected to move up to 680/725, if it fails to give any breakout the stock find its support at 484/434. 

TA: Nifty & Bank Nifty

Bank Nifty

View on Nifty

Some important support for Nifty